🇩🇪 Germany vs 🇵🇹 Portugal – Nations League Semi-Final Prediction (June 4, 2025)

Kick-off: 21:00 CET
Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
Betting Focus: Double Chance – Portugal or Draw
Odds:

• Germany to win: 1.85
• Draw: 3.60
• Portugal to win: 4.10
• Double Chance (Portugal or Draw): ~1.90

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📝 Match Preview

The UEFA Nations League semi-finals bring us a high-stakes clash between Germany and Portugal. With both teams stacked with world-class talent and heading into the match under different conditions, this encounter promises drama, quality, and potentially an upset.

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🇩🇪 Germany: Strong at Home, But Missing Key Names

Germany has impressed under Julian Nagelsmann, going unbeaten in their Nations League campaign and playing at home in Munich. But ahead of this critical clash, they are dealing with multiple injuries:

• ❌ Nadiem Amiri, Jonathan Burkardt, Angelo Stiller, and Yann Aurel Bisseck are all out.
• 🧤 Marc-André ter Stegen starts in goal, with Thilo Kehrer called in to reinforce the defense.
• ⭐ Joshua Kimmich will earn his 100th cap – a key leader in midfield.

Despite the home advantage, this is not Germany at full strength, especially in defense.

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🇵🇹 Portugal: Full Squad, Underestimated?

Portugal arrives underrated by the bookmakers. At odds of 4.10 for a win, they are viewed as clear underdogs — but the reality on the pitch might be different.

• ✅ Full-strength squad with no major injuries.
• 🔙 Bruno Fernandes returns from suspension.
• ⚽ Cristiano Ronaldo still leads the line, supported by rising stars like Francisco Trincão (scored a brace vs Denmark).
• 🛡️ Rúben Dias back in defense adds solidity and leadership.

Portugal also showed resilience and scoring power in the quarter-finals, eliminating Denmark with a 5-3 aggregate win.

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⚔️ Head-to-Head & Form

• ⚖️ Germany has a better historical record, but…
• ⚠️ Last match was in 2022: Germany won 5-2 — a different Portugal, and not on neutral or away ground.
• 📈 Germany: Unbeaten in Nations League group play.
• 🔥 Portugal: 10 goals scored in last 4 competitive matches.

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💡 Betting Insight: Value in Double Chance

While Germany is the favorite, the odds do not reflect:

• Germany’s injury issues and defensive reshuffle.
• Portugal’s full squad and offensive threat.
• The neutralizing factor of knockout stage pressure.

At ~1.90 for Double Chance (Portugal or Draw), there is clear value. Portugal has enough talent, experience, and form to at least take this to extra time — if not win outright.

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🔮 Final Prediction

Score Prediction: Germany 1-1 Portugal (Portugal to advance in extra time or penalties)
Best Bet: ✅ Double Chance – Portugal or Draw (~1.90)