French Open Quarterfinal Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul (June 3, 2025)

Match Details:

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Time: 20:15 CET
• Venue: Court Philippe Chatrier, Roland Garros, Paris
• Broadcast: TNT, truTV, Max

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📊 Head-to-Head Overview

• Total Meetings: 6
• Alcaraz Leads: 4–2
• Clay Court Meetings: 1 (Alcaraz leads 1–0)

Their most recent encounter was at the 2024 Paris Olympics quarterfinals, where Alcaraz triumphed 6–3, 7–6(7). Notably, Paul secured victories in two hard-court matches in 2022 and 2023, indicating his capability to challenge Alcaraz on faster surfaces.

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🔍 Player Profiles

🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz

• ATP Ranking: 2
• 2025 Record: 30–5
• Clay Record 2025: 19–1
• Titles in 2025: Monte Carlo, Rome
• Grand Slam Titles: 4

Alcaraz enters this match as the defending French Open champion, showcasing exceptional form on clay this season. Despite dropping a set in each of his last three matches, his resilience and adaptability remain evident .

🇺🇸 Tommy Paul

• ATP Ranking: 12
• 2025 Record: 21–8
• Clay Highlights: Semifinals in Rome and Houston
• Grand Slam Quarterfinals: 3 (including this tournament)

Paul has demonstrated significant improvement on clay, reaching the semifinals in both Rome and Houston. His aggressive baseline play and recent form suggest he’s poised to challenge top-tier opponents .

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🧠 Tactical Analysis

Alcaraz’s game is characterized by his explosive movement, heavy topspin forehand, and strategic drop shots. His ability to construct points and adapt mid-rally gives him an edge on clay.

Paul, on the other hand, relies on his flat groundstrokes and quick court coverage. His success will depend on maintaining a high first-serve percentage and dictating play early in rallies.

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💰 Betting Odds & Predictions

• Carlos Alcaraz to Win: 1.08
• Tommy Paul to Win: 8.00
• Asian Handicap (Tommy Paul +8.5 games): 1.90

Given the odds, Alcaraz is the clear favorite. However, considering Paul’s recent form and their competitive history, the match could be more contested than the odds suggest.

Recommended Bet: Tommy Paul +8.5 games (Asian Handicap)
Rationale: Their previous matches have often been closely contested, with multiple sets extending beyond the standard number of games. Betting on Paul to stay within an 8.5-game margin offers value, anticipating a potentially tight match.